吉林省西部农业生态安全评估及空间格局变化研究

Agro-ecological Security Assessment and Spatial Pattern Change in Western Jilin Province

  • 摘要: 近年来一些地区的生态环境逐渐恶化,生态安全问题层出不穷。在分析吉林省西部地区近30 a的农业生态环境演化的基础上,从生态环境质量、生态环境压力和生态环境恢复治理能力等方面对该地区农业生态安全进行综合评价。结果表明,1980年-1990年农业生态环境质量指数小幅度下降;2000年后农业生产环境质量指数开始缓慢提升。农业生态环境压力指数1980年以来一直在处于上升状态。从1990年以来农业生态环境恢复治理指数呈波动式上升状态,该指数在1985年和2000年分别比上一年略有降低。采用时间序列预测模型,预测到2015年和2020年吉林西部地区生态安全值分别为5.622 074和5.562 274。处于临界状态,生态安全有转好的趋势。在分析影响吉林省西部地区农业生态安全各指数变化原因的基础上,提出了保障吉林省西部地区农业可持续发展的生态安全建设对策。

     

    Abstract: In recent years,the ecological environment of some region is getting worse annually,and more and more ecological security problems are happening. This article based on the analysis of agricultural ecological environment evolution for the western part of Jilin province within thirty year,assess agricultural ecological security of this region comprehensively,such as the ecological environment quality,environmental carrying capacity and ecological restoration ability etc. The result shows that the index of agricultural ecological quality declined slightly from 1980 to 1990,but it was increased gradually since 2000. In addition,the index of environment carrying capacity has been increasing since 1980. As for the index of ecological restoration ability,it has been going up in fluctuant way since 1980 with the figure slightly lower than the previous year in 1985 and 2000. The predict figures of ecological security in western part of Jilin province are 5.622 074 and 5.562 274 in 2015 and 2020. That means the ecological security has chance to turn good. According to these indexes,we have put forward to the measures to ensure sustainable development of agriculture in western part of Jilin province.

     

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