中国粮食生产与消费的区域平衡研究——基于饲料粮生产及动物性食物生产的分析
Regional Difference of Grain Production and Its Consumed Fraction in China
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摘要: 为深入理解我国食物供给安全,完善植物性食物与动物性食物生产对策,优化农业生产布局,分地区研究了粮食、饲料粮和动物性食物的生产与消费。根据地域临近和气候相似原则,将我国31个省区归纳划分为7个粮食生产毗邻区,基于动物性食物生产及其饲料粮消费,分析了各毗邻区粮食消费构成,论述了其未来发展途径。结果表明,各毗邻区内,粮食生产总量都可以满足本区内的口粮及工业粮需求,全国口粮及工业粮数量供给安全;饲料粮及动物性食物生产是我国食物安全所面临的最大挑战。西部区及中部区的饲料粮生产与消费基本平衡,需要稳定维持粮食生产,促进草食动物生产;东北部区是我国饲料粮主要生产供应区,东南部区是我国饲料粮主要消费需求区,每年需要从东北部区调入0.5亿吨原粮,0.2亿吨饲料粮转化的动物性食物。促进东北部区饲料粮在本地的动物性食物转化,特别是通过牛羊等草食动物进行转化,具有多方面积极意义;东南部区在增加粮食生产的同时,需要限制猪肉生产,促进草食动物生产。从国家粮食安全战略出发,大力促进草食动物生产,压减猪肉生产,可大幅削减饲料粮消费,在维持我国粮食总产量6亿吨情况下,仍可保障我国粮食及肉品供给安全。Abstract: For understanding the regional differences in supply and consumption of food grain in China, we investigated the subregional production and consumption of unprocessed grain and feed grain. The 31 provinces were divided into 7 contiguous regions of grain production based on the spatial vicinity and climate similarity. In each contiguous region, the total grain production is self-sufficient for staple grain and industrial grain demands, and the national staple grain and industrial grain supplies are secured. In the future, the production and supply of feed grain and meat will be a new challenge for food security in China. The production and consumption balance of unprocessed and animal feed grain in the western, southwestern and central three contiguous regions is generally maintained, and there is a need to maintain a steady grain yield and promote grazing livestock industry. The northeastern region is China's main feed grain supplier, while the southeastern region is the primary consumer. Up to 50 million tons grain were transported from the northeast to southeast annualy which not only increases the transport pressure but also exaggerate the degradation of northeast crop lands. Three southeastern contiguous regions can increase grain production, while limiting swine production and developing herbivorous livestock industry. In the future, the increase in China's grain productionis limited while imports from world market remains uncertain, thus, increasing herbivorous livestock productions are fundamental guarantee for the national food security, particularly for meat production and supply in China.